Despite not yet being released, the Nintendo Switch 2 is projected to be the best-selling next-gen console, according to DFC Intelligence. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028.
This forecast positions Nintendo as the console market leader, surpassing Microsoft and Sony, primarily due to the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and limited initial competition. DFC Intelligence anticipates that Nintendo may face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence suggests these companies will likely release new consoles by 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2, barring unexpected releases, will likely maintain its market dominance. The report suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.
Further bolstering this prediction is the Switch's remarkable success; its lifetime US sales have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2, according to Circana (formerly NPD). The Switch now holds the second position in all-time US video game hardware sales, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% decrease in yearly sales.
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry as a whole. Growth is projected to resume, with 2025 anticipated as a particularly strong year, driven by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI. The global gaming audience is expected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the rising popularity of portable gaming and the continued growth of esports and gaming influencers.
