Nintendo Switch 2: Analyst Predicts Strong US Sales in 2025
Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, estimating approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This projection mirrors the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded Nintendo's initial projections. The anticipation surrounding the Switch 2 is palpable, with fans hoping Nintendo has learned from past supply chain challenges.
While social media buzz is high, translating this hype into substantial sales remains uncertain. The Switch 2's success hinges on several critical factors, including launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup. A pre-summer launch, potentially timed around Japan's Golden Week, could significantly boost sales.
Piscatella's prediction of 4.3 million US Switch 2 units sold in 2025 (assuming a first-half launch) represents roughly one-third of the total US console market (excluding handheld PCs like the Steam Deck). He acknowledges potential supply constraints due to anticipated high demand, but the extent of Nintendo's manufacturing preparedness remains unclear. The company may have proactively addressed potential shortages, unlike the original Switch launch.
Despite the optimistic Switch 2 forecast, Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining its position as the top-selling console in the US. While the Switch 2's hype is undeniable, the PS5's anticipated game releases, including the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6, could significantly impact sales. Ultimately, the Switch 2's performance will depend on the console's hardware capabilities and its launch title lineup. The level of excitement is significant, and a strong showing could propel it to market leadership.
Analyst's Tweet: "Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables)." — Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) January 8, 2025
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